← Chronos Mortal Ambition Store Champtionship
Water FractalTier 1
at Chronos Mortal Ambition Store Champtionship
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.3%
avg ELO +4.8 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1329
· median 1329
· range 1327–1331
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1050
Q1 1204
Q3 1401
1438
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 25.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.7% | -2.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.4 |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
